Our staff’s favorite bets for Raptors vs. Wizards, Pistons vs. Jazz, more

We’re wrapping up the week with another busy Friday Night NBA slate. Last week we saw two big upsets play out on Friday and with several sizeable underdogs in action, one of our analysts is betting on another big upset playing out tonight.

Overall, our team makes four bets over three games, including two props, a spread bet and a moneyline bet. You can read their analysis on the games and check out their best bets for Friday night below.

NBA odds and picks

Take
PK Wizards
Delivered
BetMGM
Trick
8 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Rahim Palmer: The Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors are two teams heading in completely different directions. The Raptors have lost four of their last five games while the Wizards have won four of their last six games. the Wiz was a missed pointer from Kyle Kuzma 3 points away from completing a fourth-quarter comeback against the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday night.

With the Nets assistant coach knocking the ball off Kuzma Wednesday night in critical time, the motivation will be there for the Wizards to bounce back there. Motivation aside, the Wizards are healthy for the first time this season without any players on the injured list and that offense has rolled over the past two weeks, scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions – sixth among teams of the NBA.

The Raptors, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, scoring just 109.8 points per 100 possessions — 26th among NBA teams over the past two weeks. The Wizards are first in field goal percentage from the edge (70.6%) against a Raptors team that is 24th in opposing field goal percentage from the edge (65.8%). With the better half-court offense and the ability to stop the Raptors in transition, that line seems out of place.

The Nets with James Harden and Kyrie Irving were -1 away against Washington, when you factor in home advantage, the Wizards should be more than a PK at home against this struggling Raptors team in the half court.


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Brooklyn Nets vs. San Antonio Spurs

Take
Dejounte Murray Over 16.5 REB + AST (-110) | Triple-Double (+500)
Delivered
DraftKings
Trick
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Joe Dellera: The Spurs take on the Nets in what should be a high-scoring affair. Those two teams last played an overtime thriller on Jan. 9, and the Nets edged the Spurs 121-119. In this game, Dejounte Murray collapsed, he almost recorded a triple double with 19 points, nine rebounds and 12 assists. While Spurs were without Derrick White for this contest, White is a solid shooter and could actually help with Murray’s assist numbers.

The Nets are a lower-tier defense, despite what their baseline defensive metrics might say, as they rank 17th in adjusted defensive rating. The absence of Kevin Durant makes this defense even worse given that he provided length to defend the paint and secure the rebounds. Additionally, the Spurs and Nets are playing at two of the fastest paces in the league, fourth and ninth respectively.

It’s Murray’s opportunity to rack up some tally stats, and I like that his rebounds and assists combo line tops 16.5, a number he’s broken in six of his last 10. matches. I’ll also sprinkle his chances of registering a triple double a bit (they’re even better at +650 on BetRivers).


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Take
ML pistons +800
Delivered
PointsBet
Trick
9 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Brandon Anderson: The Pistons are really bad. The Jazz are pretty good. That’s really all the logic we should need to know that Utah should win this game.

But for some strange reason, that logic just didn’t hold up in Jazz’s games this season. Utah keeps losing to really bad teams.

The first time the Jazz were double-digit favorites this season, they beat the Thunder comfortably. But the next time was in Orlando and the lowly Magic got the job done as the 11-point dogs, a +425 moneyline winner. Three more times in November, the Jazz lost outright as double-digit favorites: Pacers +400, Grizzlies +420 and Pelicans +592.

Things were looking up for Utah in December, where the Jazz were mostly minding business as double-digit favorites, going 5-1 straight in such games. But the problem surfaced again in January, with Utah 0-2 as double-digit favorites with losses to the Rockets (+750) and those same Pistons (+460) just 11 days ago.

For the season, Utah is just 10-7 as a double-digit favorite. For comparison, everything else in the NBA is downright 64-9 as double-digit favorites. Call it team chemistry issues, an adrenaline rush, whatever you want — for whatever reason, the Jazz continue to underperform savagely against the dregs of the NBA.

At this point, that makes it an automatic bet at +750. Double-digit moneylines against the Jazz this season have an absurd 152.5% return on investment this season. If you blindly bet $100 against Utah every time the books make them a big favorite, you’ll already win $2,592 — and we’re only halfway through the season.

There’s not much basketball analysis here. Hopefully Killian Hayes sits down and we love Kelly Olynyk is back. But there’s really no reason why the Pistons should beat the Jazz or even come close, and maybe they’ll lose by 25. But maybe they won’t. And the numbers say we have to find out.


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